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Alpha Shield Market Signal

Dodge Market Crashes – Outperform – Protect Your Financial Future

Data-driven signals for smarter investing.

Proven Strategy
Real-Time Signals
Risk Protection

Why Choose Alpha Shield?

Three powerful advantages that set us apart

Crash Protection - Shield your investments from market downturns with advanced risk management that prompts you to step aside before major crashes.

Crash Protection

Shield your investments from market downturns with advanced risk management that prompts you to step aside before major crashes.

Outperformance - Beat the market consistently with data-driven signals that surface opportunities and calibrate exposure for maximized returns.

Outperformance

Beat the market consistently with data-driven signals that surface opportunities and calibrate exposure for maximized returns.

Simplicity - Get clear, actionable guidance without complexity. Our concise daily updates make professional-grade investing accessible.

Simplicity

Get clear, actionable guidance without complexity. Our concise daily updates make professional-grade investing accessible.

Simplified Daily Signals to Protect and Grow Your Portfolio.

Every day, Alpha Shield delivers a single, crystal-clear signal — IN (Risk ON) or OUT (Risk OFF).

No Noise. No Overthinking. Just Actionable Clarity.

When the market is IN, invest in SPY or QQQ. When it's OUT, move to IEF, TLT, or Cash/BIL.

A fully rule-based system that adapts to market stress in real time — emotion-free and proven through multiple crises.

How It Works?
Under the Hood of the Alpha Shield Market Signal

Alpha Shield decodes the VIX Futures Curve, the market's own fear gauge, to detect when risk is building beneath the surface.

It blends multiple volatility and curve-slope metrics, scores them in real time, and issues one daily instruction:

Stay IN or step OUT.

Systematic – Driven by data, not opinion.

Actionable – Trade once per day, ONLY if the signal changes.

Transparent – You control your own brokerage account.

No Hype. No Emotion. No Second-Guessing.

Clarity and Transparency

What Alpha Shield Is Not

Understand the boundaries of the system so you know exactly what to expect—no hype, no false promises.

Not a day-trading tool

  • Only one signal per day—no scalping or intraday chasing.
  • Designed to ride major market trends and sidestep severe drawdowns.
  • Aims for disciplined allocation, not short-term price noise.

Not immune to down days

  • Markets fluctuate—even during strong "IN" phases.
  • Short-term setbacks can happen while trends develop.
  • The goal is to limit deep drawdowns and stay aligned with the regime.

Not a shorting strategy

  • Shorting SPY on "OUT" signals proved inconsistent in testing.
  • Occasional inconclusive "OUT" readings make short exposure unreliable.
  • We prioritize capital preservation via cash or Treasury ETFs (IEF, TLT, BIL) in risk-off regimes.

In short, Alpha Shield helps you sidestep the big crashes—not every minor dip—and keeps your capital on the right side of the market over the long run.

About the Team behind Alpha Shield

Alpha Shield team members working on market analysis and trading signals

We are former investment bankers and global markets professionals with over 50 years of combined experience at leading global institutions.

In 2017, we left the corporate world to build a system to manage our own money and that followed three core principles:

1

Preserve capital and control risk.

2

Follow a systematic, emotion-free process.

3

Keep it simple — one clear daily decision.

Our goal was to avoid major drawdowns of a typical buy-and-hold strategy.

After years of research and live testing, Alpha Shield was launched in 2019.

It now manages 100% of our own portfolio — and has outperformed through every major crash since.

Backtested since 2008. Live-Tested since 2019.

Our Battle-Hardened Algorithm - Alpha Shield - has navigated many storms, including:

  • ·The Great Financial Crisis (2008),
  • ·EU Debt Crisis (2011),
  • ·China Market Crash (2016),
  • ·"Volmageddon" (2018)
  • ·Covid Crash (2020)
  • ·2022 Market Correction (2022)
  • ·2025 Market Correction (2025)
Alpha Shield backtest performance chart showing returns and volatility metrics since 2008
Notable Market Crashes / DrawdownsReturn Over Period
EventStartEndSPYAlpha Shield
GFC - Sub Prime5/18/20084/23/2009-38.35%-5.45%
EU Debt Crisis7/22/201111/28/2011-11.05%2.15%
China Mkt Crash7/21/20152/11/2016-13.64%0.84%
Volmageddon1/31/20182/8/2018-8.61%0.01%
Covid2/19/20203/23/2020-34.10%1.51%

Performance Comparison

Alpha Shield vs SPY Performance Over Time

Cumulative returns comparison showing Alpha Shield's consistent outperformance

Cumulative Returns Since 2019 (Live Trading)

Cumulative Returns Since 2008 (Backtest)

When backtested back and then used in live trading (since 2019) the Alpha Shield Strategy not only managed to significantly reduce portfolio volatility and drawdowns, but it also managed to greatly outperform the market:

Year-to-Date Performance Summary (as of 10 October 2025)

MetricSPYAlpha Shield
YTD Performance12.89%23.39%
Realized Volatility20.98%10.54%
Down Volatility12.04%6.03%
YTD Max Drawdown-19.00%-3.53%
Sharpe Ratio0.79382.8675
Sortino Ratio1.38345.0093
Calmar Ratio0.67826.6319

Historical Performance Summary (Backtest Since 2008)

MetricSPYAlpha Shield
Avg. Return (Annualized)8.93%20.37%
Historical Realized Volatility20.07%12.61%
Historical Down Volatility14.25%8.57%
Max Drawdown-53.00%-13.57%
Sharpe Ratio0.44521.6157
Sortino Ratio0.62692.3777
Calmar Ratio0.16851.5014

Since Inception (Live Trading Jan 2019)

MetricSPYAlpha Shield
Avg. Return (Annualized)17.26%27.71%
Historical Realized Volatility20.01%12.89%
Historical Down Volatility12.84%7.97%
Max Drawdown (DD)-33.72%-12.16%
Sharpe Ratio0.86242.1491
Sortino Ratio1.34433.4772
Calmar Ratio0.51192.2791

Start Receiving Alpha Shield Dashboard and Market Signal Today

Make the choice to Preserve Your Capital, generate superior risk-adjusted returns with no emotional bias.

Access our real-time daily signal with straightforward asset allocation and position sizing recommendations tailored for disciplined investors.

  • 💎$30 / month
  • Daily IN/OUT Signal via Dashboard + Email + WhatsApp/Discord
  • Simple ETF Allocation and Position Sizing Guidance
  • Live Performance and Metrics Dashboard
  • Educational Resources + "Inside the Algo" + Nerd Section

Preview of the Alpha Shield Dashboard

Alpha Shield Simplified Dashboard preview showing signal status, allocation, and daily action call

Why Choose Alpha Shield?

  • Protects capital during major crashes
  • Outperforms the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis
  • Emotion-free, rule-based discipline
  • Simple ETF implementation — no complex trades

Stop Guessing. Start Protecting.

Subscribe today and take control of your market destiny.

Resources

Educational content and insights to help you become a smarter investor

Investing Basics for Beginners

Learn the fundamentals of investing, portfolio management, and risk assessment. Perfect for those starting their investment journey.

Content coming soon

How VIX Futures Impact Market Volatility

Understand the relationship between VIX futures, market volatility, and how Alpha Shield uses these signals to protect your portfolio.

Content coming soon

Backtesting Insights

Learn from historical market events. Discover how Alpha Shield performed during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, and other major market downturns.

Key Lessons:

  • 2008 Financial Crisis: How early warning signals helped minimize losses
  • 2020 COVID Crash: Rapid market recovery and position management
  • Volatility spikes and portfolio protection strategies

Testimonials

What investors say about partnering with Alpha Shield

JH

James H.

CIO - Multi-Family Office, Zurich

Alpha Shield turned volatility into clarity. I have managed discretionary portfolios for over two decades, and the hardest part has always been knowing when to reduce risk. Alpha Shield does not try to predict the future - it reads the market's own stress signals. It gives me the confidence to stay invested when it is safe and to step aside when the odds turn.

MP

Maria P.

Private Banker, Geneva

An elegant layer of discipline over my investment process. The beauty of Alpha Shield is its simplicity. It does not drown you in charts or signals - one clear regime change per day, backed by a transparent logic I can verify myself. I use it as a timing overlay on my equity allocation, and it has meaningfully improved my portfolio's risk-adjusted return.

EM

Elena M.

Retired Fund Manager, New York

Surprisingly effective in keeping emotions out. During 2022, when volatility spiked and sentiment flipped daily, I relied on the Alpha Shield signal to maintain objectivity. Having a single daily data-driven decision point removed the impulse to over-trade or rationalize fear. That psychological benefit alone is invaluable.

KS

Karim S.

Former Investment Banker, Dubai

A rare blend of quantitative rigor and usability. Most algorithms I have encountered are either opaque or overly complex. Alpha Shield bridges that gap - the methodology is clear, the rationale sound, and the implementation practical through liquid ETFs. It feels like institutional risk management distilled for private investors.

SD

Sophie D.

Independent Investor, Paris

Consistent, transparent, and refreshingly honest. What convinced me was not just the backtest - it was how the team presented its limitations. No exaggerated claims, no unrealistic promises. Just a robust, rule-based process that has been live-tested across multiple regimes. That level of integrity is rare in this space.

Frequently Asked Questions

Find answers to common questions about Alpha Shield

FAQ content will be added soon. Please check back later or contact us for immediate assistance.

Get in Touch

Contact Us

Have questions or want to learn more? We'd love to hear from you. Send us a message and we'll respond as soon as possible.

Email Address

info@alphashield.com

We typically respond within 24 hours